Search results for "Predictive uncertainty"

showing 2 items of 2 documents

Daily streamlow prediction with uncertainty in ephemeral catchments using the GLUE methodology

2009

Abstract The Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) approach is presented here as a tool for estimating the predictive uncertainty of a rainfall–runoff model. The GLUE methodology allows to recognise the possible equifinality of different parameter sets and assesses the likelihood of a parameters set being acceptable simulator when model predictions are compared to observed field data. The results of the GLUE methodology depend greatly on the choice of the likelihood measure and on the choice of the threshold which determines if a parameters set is behavioural or not. Moreover the sampling size has a strong influence on the uncertainty assessment of the response of a rainfall–…

Computer scienceSettore ICAR/02 - Costruzioni Idrauliche E Marittime E IdrologiaEquifinalityVariance (accounting)Measure (mathematics)GeophysicsGeochemistry and PetrologySample size determinationStatisticsEconometricsSample varianceSensitivity analysisGLUEPredictive uncertainty Rainfall-Runoff model Generalized Likelehood Uncertainty Estimation Ephemeral catchmentsUncertainty analysis
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Approximate Bayesian Computation for Forecasting in Hydrological models

2018

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a statistical tool for handling parameter inference in a range of challenging statistical problems, mostly characterized by an intractable likelihood function. In this paper, we focus on the application of ABC to hydrological models, not as a tool for parametric inference, but as a mechanism for generating probabilistic forecasts. This mechanism is referred as Approximate Bayesian Forecasting (ABF). The abcd water balance model is applied to a case study on Aipe river basin in Columbia to demonstrate the applicability of ABF. The predictivity of the ABF is compared with the predictivity of the MCMC algorithm. The results show that the ABF method as …

Predictive uncertainty Probabilistic post-processing approach Bayesian forecasting Sufficient statistics Hydrological models Intractable likelihood
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